By Taniel Koushakjian
FLArmenians Political Contributor
With the House of Representatives
remaining in Republican control and the Senate and White House again in
Democratic hands, another session of a divided Congress began on January
3, 2013. Major domestic issues facing Americans will be the top
priority for the 113th Congress, most likely stretching into the 114th
Congress and potentially even beyond that. Immigration reform, tax
reform, job creation, deficit reduction, reducing gun violence, civil
liberties for the LGBT community, and women’s rights all top the agenda
for elected officials, rightfully so. But foreign policy, international
religious freedom and human rights issues have the potential to grab
headlines, especially in light of the U.S. draw down in Afghanistan, the
effects of the Arab Spring, and the civil war in Syria have all shown.
Every one of these issues, domestic and foreign, impact
Armenian-Americans in some way, thus begging the question: In this
polarized political climate and with a laundry list of serious problems
facing Congress and the White House, what does this mean for
Armenian-Americans two years away from the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide?
Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) was re-elected to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives for the 113th
Congress. Reps. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) were
re-elected to serve as Majority Leader and Majority Whip, respectively.
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the Republican Vice Presidential nominee and a
leader in the House Republican Conference, was re-elected to his House
seat and will remain the Chairman of the powerful Budget Committee.
Leader Cantor and Chairman Ryan sit on the Armenian Caucus and, together
with McCarthy, have all cosponsored Armenian Genocide resolutions. On
the Democratic side, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Minority
Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) also resumed their posts. Pelosi and Hoyer also
sit on the Armenian Caucus and have decades-long records on Armenian
issues in Congress. Democrats gained twelve seats in the last election
leaving Republicans in control of the chamber by a narrower margin,
232-200.
Two seats are currently vacant and impact Armenian issues: Illinois’ 2
nd
district where, despite his re-election last November, Armenian Caucus
Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL) resigned, plead guilty and currently
faces up to five years in prison for his personal use of campaign funds; and South Carolina’s 1
st
district where Rep. Tim Scott (R-SC) was appointed to the U.S. Senate
to fill the seat vacated by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Former Governor Mark
Sanford (R-SC) resigned in 2009 after admitting to an extramarital
affair and is running to win back his old House seat. In 2000,
then-Congressman Sanford was a member of the House Foreign Affairs
Committee (then called the House International Relations Committee) and
voted YES during the committee vote on the Armenian Genocide resolution.
Last week, Sanford won the Republican primary and will face Democrat
Elizabeth Colbert Bush, the sister of popular comedian Stephen Colbert.
Although the South Carolina 1
st seat is heavily Republican
(Mitt Romney carried the district over President Obama 58-40), Colbert
Bush is waging a strong campaign and is in a statistical tie with
Sanford
according to a recent poll. The special elections in Illinois and South Carolina will be held on April 9, and May 7, 2013, respectively.
For the Senate, Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also reassumed
their posts. Both Reid and McConnell have significant records in support
of Armenian issues. Reid is considered a champion of Armenian issues,
having cosponsored successive Armenian Genocide resolutions. Last year,
the
Armenian National Committee of America honored Senator Reid.
In August 1997, Senator McConnell travelled to Armenia and two years
later led the charge against a pro-Azerbaijan amendment proposed by
then-Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) that would have repealed Section 907
of the Freedom Support Act (Public Law 102-511), which bars direct U.S.
military aid to Azerbaijan given the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from
Azerbaijan (1988-1990), the ensuing Nagorno-Karabakh War (1991-1994),
and Azerbaijan’s blockade of Armenia (1994-Present). Although McConnell
was successful in defeating the amendment and protecting Armenia, a
watered down version of Brownback’s amendment eventually came to pass in
2001, granting the President the authority to waive Section 907 and
provide U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan, which the President has
since done on an annual basis. Democrats gained two seats in the Senate
in 2012 and now control the chamber 55-45 (two Independent Senators
caucus with Democrats).
Like the previous Congress, both Republican and Democratic leaders in the 113th
Congress each have strong records in support of Armenian-American
issues, specifically Senate Majority Leader Reid, Senate Minority Leader
McConnell, House Majority Leader Cantor, House Majority Whip McCarthy,
House Budget Chairman Ryan, House Minority Leader Pelosi and House
Minority Whip Hoyer.
Looking at the House Foreign Affairs
Committee (HFAC), the committee of jurisdiction for the Armenian
Genocide resolution, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) is term limited
according to House Republican Conference rules, stepped down as chairman
of the committee, but will remain on as the Subcommittee Chair for the
Middle East and North Africa. As
FLArmenians previously reported,
Ros-Lehtinen has an inconsistent record on Armenian issues, having
voted YES on the Armenian Genocide resolution in 2000 and 2005, but NO
in 2007 and 2010. She also sits on both the Armenian and Turkish Caucus.
With Ros-Lehtinen’s transition, Armenian Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Ed Royce
(R-CA) has taken the gavel as Chairman for the 113
th
Congress, with pro-Armenia Rep. Elliot Engel (D-NY) serving as Ranking
Member. Tied with California, Florida Representatives account for the
largest delegation serving on the HFAC (7 out of 46) namely
Ros-Lehtinen, and Reps. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Trey Radel (R-FL), Ted Yoho
(R-FL), Ted Deutch (D-FL), Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Lois Frankel (D-FL).
Hellenic Caucus Co-Chair and Armenian
Caucus member Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) is no longer serving on HFAC. In
addition to Bilirakis, pro-Armenian Representatives departing the HFAC
in 113
th Congress include Reps. Donald Manzullo (R-IL),
Howard Berman (D-CA), Allyson Schwartz (D-PA), and Christopher Murphy
(D-CT). Congressman Manzullo (R-IL), who voted YES on Armenian Genocide
resolution votes in committee in 2007 and 2010, lost a bitter primary
battle. Due to redistricting, he was forced to run against his fellow
Republican colleague and Turkish Caucus Member Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). In
an unusual move, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor got involved in the
race. Cantor publicly endorsed Kinzinger over Manzullo, donated $10,000
to him from his leadership PAC while “The YG Action Fund” Super PAC –
run by a former Cantor aide – spent $52,000 on a radio ad boosting
Kinzinger,” according to a
report in Roll Call.
Furthermore, Kinzinger received $6,500 from Turkish PACs last cycle, a
bet that seems to have paid off. HFAC Ranking Member Howard Berman was
also a victim of redistricting, where he lost his seat to fellow
Democratic colleague Brad Sherman (D-CA). As
FLArmenians reported last year, the Berman-Sherman race was sure to grab national headlines, and it did. In addition to
both sides spending a record $16 million, at one point the
two Congressmen almost got into a physical altercation
during a town hall debate. Armenian Caucus member Rep. Allyson Schwartz
(D-PA) easily won re-election last year, but will not sit on the HFAC
in the 113
th Congress. According to a
report in the Philadelphia Inquirer,
Rep. Schwartz is interested in leaving her House seat behind in a run
for Governor in 2014. Armenian Caucus member Christopher Murphy (D-CT)
did not seek re-election last year, and instead successfully ran for
Senate where he replaced retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).
Pro-Turkey members departing the HFAC in the 113
th
Congress include Reps. Dan Burton (R-IN), Mike Pence (R-IN), Connie
Mack (R-FL), Jean Schmidt (R-OH), and Russ Carnahan (D-MO). Congressman
Burton announced his retirement last year and did not seek re-election.
In February, Burton was named
chairman of the board of the Azerbaijan American Alliance.
Rep. Pence was elected Governor of Indiana last year, while Congressman
Mack unsuccessfully ran for the Florida Senate, giving up his House
seat in the process. Both Reps. Jean Schmidt and Russ Carnahan lost
their respective party primary election and were not even on the ballot
in November. However, the circumstances surrounding Jean Schmidt’s
stunning primary loss, as well as the loss of her two-time opponent,
Armenian-American David Krikorian (D-OH), warrants a deeper look. As
FLArmenians reported last year,
Schmidt and Krikorian faced off at the ballot box in 2008 and 2010, and
in an Ohio election courtroom in 2011. A number of factors contributed
to Schmidt’s ousting in addition to her ethics woes: she was an
incumbent, was opposed by the Tea-Party, she had new territory in her
district as a result of redistricting, and she did very little
campaigning to keep her job, if at all. In fact, on the day of the
primary election, Schmidt wasn’t even in Ohio; she was in Washington,
D.C. attending a private luncheon with Turkey’s Ambassador to the United
States Namik Tan, according to a
report in POLITICO.
In August 2011 the House Ethics Committee ordered Schmidt to repay the
more than $500,000 she “unknowingly accepted” to the Turkish Coalition
of America when she was found guilty of accepting the free legal
services as an improper gift, but cleared of wrongdoing. To date,
Schmidt has only made one payment toward her debt. However, since she is
no longer serving in Congress she gets to “cleanly walk away from
this,” the
Dayton Daily News reported.
As for Krikorian, he too lost his primary battle, but the writing
wasn’t so much on the wall for him as it was for Schmidt. William R.
Smith, a local truck driver and political unknown who spent no money and
did no campaigning whatsoever trumped Krikorian by 59 votes out of
roughly 20,000 cast. Kirkorian campaigned hard, raised money, travelled
the district and had the backing of the local and state Democratic
Party. However,
a report in USATODAY
attributes Krikorian’s upset to a last minute effort by a mysterious
Super PAC that sponsored a number of robo-calls encouraging voters to
back Smith.
Today, nine of the 46 members of the HFAC
sit on the Armenian Caucus, whereas thirteen sit on the Turkish Caucus.
Nearly half of the HFAC in the 113th Congress are freshman
(22) and it is not yet clear who will join the Armenian or Turkish
Caucus. Technically a member of the 113th freshman class,
Rep. Alan Grayson served in Congress from 2008-2010 and was an original
cosponsor of the Armenian Genocide resolution. Also, despite the fact
that Congressman Deutch has never cosponsored the Armenian Genocide
resolution, he did vote YES during the successful committee vote in
2010.
Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen was also appointed to the House Rules Committee in the 113
th
Congress, a top leadership body that oversees what legislation is
actually brought up and passed by the House of Representatives. This
committee is significant should any legislation reaffirming the United
States Record on the Armenian Genocide be brought to the floor for a
vote in the run up to 2015. In fact, Florida currently holds four out of
the 13-committee seats, which also includes Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL),
who helped lead Democratic efforts to defeat the Armenian Genocide
resolution in 2007. Last year, the
Turkish Coalition of America sponsored a trip for Ros-Lehtinen to Turkey,
where she was reunited with her Turkish relatives. Looking ahead,
Turkish Caucus Co-Chair and Rules Committee Vice-Chairman Rep. Virginia
Foxx (R-NC) is considered the Republican front-runner to challenge
Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) in 2014. Congresswoman Foxx’s son-in-law is
Turkish and she is a top recipient of Turkish PAC contributions. A
January 10-13, 2013 poll
conducted by Democrat leaning Public Policy Polling showed Foxx leading
the crowded Republican field with 21%, but also showed Hagan over Foxx
by 7% in a direct match up. Although the 2012 Democratic National
Convention was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, Mitt Romney carried
the state with 51%. Rep. Foxx’s potential departure from the Rules
Committee removes one obstacle, but her election to the Senate would
create a different one. Meanwhile, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen’s addition to the
“Speaker’s Committee” appears to have created another hurdle for human
rights proponents, but that doesn’t necessarily mean she will be.
On the other side of Capitol Hill, Senate
Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) Chairman and former Democratic
presidential nominee John Kerry (D-MA) was nominated by President Obama
and quickly confirmed as the 68
th U.S. Secretary of State. The Armenian Assembly of America, the largest independent Armenian-American advocacy group,
recalled Kerry’s numerous actions in support of Armenian issues.
Departing Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, considered the
leading Democratic contender for the White House in 2016, played a
significant role in the signing of historic Protocols by the governments
of Turkey and Armenia in 2009 that envisioned the establishment and
normalization of relations between the two countries, as well as the end
of Turkey’s blockade of Armenia. Although the Protocols stalled in the
Turkish Parliament,
Clinton has been on record multiple times urging Turkish government officials at senior levels to follow through on their international commitment.
Also departing Obama’s cabinet is Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta, who was succeeded by former Senator Charles
Hagel (R-KS), albeit with some Senate consternation. Hagel’s nomination
is concerning to Armenian-Americans.
An article in the Washington Free Beacon entitled “Chuck Hagel has an Armenian Problem,”
recalled a 2005 statement where he declared that “What happened in 1915
happened in 1915” and that the Armenian Genocide should be left “to
historians and others to decide what happened and why.” Also of import
to Armenian-Americans is the
departure of Samantha Power,
Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights at the
National Security Council (NSC). Power is well known in
Armenian-American circles for her book “A Problem From Hell” which
extensively covers the Armenian Genocide, and for her assurances to the
Armenian-American community during the 2008 campaign that Obama would
keep his promise and recognize the Armenian Genocide as President.
Washington insiders consider Power as Obama’s top pick to be the next
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, should Susan Rice be nominated to
head the NSC. In addition, Phillip Gordon, Assistant Secretary of State
for European & Eurasian Affairs, has
left his post to join President Obama in the White House.
He served as Secretary Clinton’s hand during the signing of the
historic Armenia-Turkey Protocols. Current State Department Spokeswoman
Victoria Nuland is
expected to replace Gordon.
Kerry’s departure from the Senate
resulted in the promotion of pro-Armenia Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ)
to Chairman of the powerful SFRC. Menendez has been a champion of
Armenian issues for over a decade and is one of the Senate’s strongest
proponents of human rights, religious freedom, and Armenian-American
issues. Kerry’s departure also results in an open Senate seat in
Massachusetts, home to the second largest Armenian community in the U.S.
Scott Brown (R-MA), who shocked the nation when he won the 2010 special
election to replace deceased Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), announced,
fresh off his 2012 re-election loss, that he would not run to replace
Kerry. Much to the chagrin of the Massachusetts GOP, Brown would have
been the strongest Republican candidate in the field, and instead is
reportedly eyeing the Governor’s mansion in 2014.
Should Brown have run to replace Kerry this year, he would have been
forced to run for re-election again next year. That amounts to four very
expensive campaigns for Senate in four years, something no politician
has ever faced, and a natural conclusion for Brown not to seek the seat.
For Armenian-Americans, it was interesting that with eight months
remaining before the 2012 election
Brown introduced the Senate version of the “Return of Churches,” a bill that called on the Republic of Turkey to safeguard its Christian heritage and return stolen church properties.
As FLArmenians previously reported,
the House version of this bill passed the lower chamber last year, but
Brown’s bill went nowhere and was perceived as a last-ditch effort to
secure the Armenian-American vote. Brown lost his re-election in 2012 to
Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who
met with Armenian-Americans at the Democratic National Convention
last year and pledged her support of Armenian issues, particularly
genocide affirmation. Upon his election to the Senate in 2010, Brown
refused to cosponsor the Armenian Genocide resolution, a mistake that
proved consequential in his re-election effort. With Brown out, many
expect the Massachusetts Senate seat to remain in Democratic hands. The
two Democratic contenders are both members of the Armenian Caucus: Reps.
Ed Markey (D-MA) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA). Recent polling in the state
gives Markey the edge, in addition to Democratic establishment support.
However, Lynch has strong union backing and is expected to mount a tough
campaign in the Bay State. The Massachusetts Senate special election is
scheduled for June 25, 2013.
Florida’s senior Senator Bill Nelson
(D-FL) has left the SFRC, while Florida’s junior Senator Marco Rubio
(R-FL) remains on the committee. Rubio is a top contender in the
Republican field for the White House in 2016 and delivered the GOP
response to President Obama’s State of the Union address earlier this
year. Senators Nelson and Rubio have no record in support of
Armenian-American issues. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), who
incidentally backed Rubio’s unsuccessful candidacy to join Mitt Romney
on the Republican presidential ticket in 2012, is also a top Republican
contender in the next race for the White House. In 2006,
Gov. Jeb Bush issued an official proclamation commemorating the Armenian Genocide.
Also of note are the known and unknown
retirements of pro-Armenian Senators. Senior New Jersey Senator Frank
Lautenberg announced his intention not to seek re-election in 2014,
paving the way for Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ) to seek his seat.
Representing one of the strongest Armenian-American communities, New
Jersey’s senior Senator Lautenberg has cosponsored successive Armenian
Genocide resolutions. Booker has not issued any official statements or
proclamations on the Armenian Genocide as mayor, but he has attended
Armenian community events. Also, Armenian Caucus Co-Founder and Co-Chair
Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) previously expressed interest in the
Senate seat years ago, but has not yet announced his intentions for the
next cycle.
Booker was in Palm Beach last month
for a fundraiser for his Senate campaign. Also, Senator Tom Harkin
(D-IA) announced that he would not seek re-election in 2014. Republicans
are looking forward to Congressman Steve King (R-IA) jumping into this
open seat contest, while Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the only major
Democrat in the race. Rep. Steve King is a member of the Turkish Caucus
whereas Rep. Bruce Braley is a member of the Armenian Caucus. Another
Senate departure that seriously impacts Armenian-American issues is the
retirement of Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin
(D-MI). Levin’s retirement was expected as he was on the short
list of retirements to look out for
as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections. He will be 80 years old
had he chosen to run for re-election next year. Senator Levin has been a
champion of Armenian issues for over thirty years and introduced one of
the first Armenian Genocide resolutions in the Senate back in 1981.
Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) is also on that list, but his
retirement is less likely. Durbin, the Senate Democrat’s number two, is a
previous cosponsor of the Armenian Genocide resolution.
With the exception of House Speaker
Boehner, a majority of the Republican and Democrat leadership in both
the House and Senate, including leaders of the HFAC and SFRC on both
sides of the aisle, all have strong, decades-long records in support of
Armenian-American issues, particularly efforts to protect Christian
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh from Muslim Turkey and Azerbaijan’s
blockade and aggressive policies, as well as genocide recognition
efforts. Interestingly, despite the broad coalition of pro-Armenia
congressional leadership, the one factor that has been instrumental in
previous legislative efforts to affirm and reaffirm the U.S. record on
the Armenian Genocide is a strong Speaker of the House. When the United
States House of Representatives first acknowledged the Armenian Genocide
in 1977, and again in 1984, the Speaker at the time was none other than
Thomas Phillip “Tip” O’Neill (D-MA), arguably one of the most powerful
Speakers of the House in American history. Of course, his being from
Massachusetts helped. But since then, the closest the Armenian Genocide
resolution got to the House floor was in 2000, when it passed the Rules
Committee under Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and was ultimately blocked
by President Bill Clinton. Hastert was somewhat of a strong Speaker,
but he was no Newt Gingrich or Tip O’Neill. In 2007 and 2010, Speaker
Pelosi was unable to get the Armenian Genocide bill through her own
Rules Committee. As the 113
th Congress convened to elect their Speaker, some Republican members organized a
behind-the-scenes revolt against Boehner,
many preferring Rep. Eric Cantor. However unsuccessful this effort was,
it does open wider the possibility for a new Republican Speaker should
the GOP hold the House in 2014, especially if Republicans loose more
seats. History suggests that only a strong, well-respected and powerful
Speaker would be able to bring an Armenian Genocide resolution to the
floor of the House for a vote before 2015. One possible scenario would
be that a Speaker Ryan or a Speaker Cantor could very well play that
role. After joining Mitt Romney on the Republican ticket in 2012, talk
on Capitol Hill has it that Ryan is less interested in the White House,
and instead is
eyeing the Speaker’s gavel. In addition, it was Cantor, not Boehner, who recently
spoke at the American Enterprise Institute
in an effort to rebrand the GOP for the 2014 midterms. In another
scenario, should Democrats take back the House in the 2014, it is
unlikely that a Speaker Pelosi could or would bring an Armenian Genocide
bill up for a vote, but a Speaker Hoyer potentially could.
The 2014 mid-term elections will be an
important factor in the makeup of Armenian-American and Turkish
influence in Congress, and will set the chessboard for 2015. Congress,
of which one chamber has already recognized the Armenian Genocide, has
an opportunity to work with the White House to put American foreign
policy on the right course when it comes to the Armenian Genocide and
future human rights related policy. The outperformance of Turkish PACs
to Armenian PACs in the last three cycles has turned the tables, as
reflected in the Armenian and Turkish Caucus numbers. It remains to be
seen what steps the Armenian-American community will take in the next 24
months. At the same time, the re-election of President Barack Obama
offers a sliver of hope for Armenian-Americans, particularly in those
that stuck with him (with their checkbooks and at the ballot box) last
year. President Obama can issue an executive proclamation, order or
decree reaffirming the vast U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide at any
time prior to the expiration of his term in January 2017. Certainly,
human rights and anti-genocide activists, within and beyond the
Armenian-American community, hope the President will honor his 2008
campaign promise to refer to the events of 1915 as the Armenian Genocide
before the 100th anniversary. With a strong,
well-established and broad coalition of pro-Armenia officials in the
leadership of both political parties in both chambers of the U.S.
Congress (and hopefully a strong Speaker), President Obama no longer
threatened by another election, Vice President Joe Biden’s well
established record, and Secretary of State Kerry’s decades-long efforts
on behalf of his Armenian-American constituents, there has never been a
more opportune time for the Armenian-American community to have a
positive impact on U.S. reaffirmation, and Turkey’s recognition, of the
Armenian Genocide-potentially even a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a result. After all, it is the modern
government of Turkey’s recognition of its Ottoman predecessor’s crime
that the Armenian Diaspora deems as the justice necessary to bring about
true healing and reconciliation between the two peoples. No doubt
President Obama, his cabinet, and U.S. Congressional leaders have an
opportunity to play a crucial role in what could be one of the most
monumental achievements of justice and conflict resolution in modern
human history.
Taniel Koushakjian is an independent
political commentator for Florida Armenians (www.flarmenians.com). He
earned a B.A. in Political Science from Florida Atlantic University, and
is currently enrolled at the George Washington University Graduate
School of Political Management in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter
@Taniel_Shant.
