Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Kurdish State and Western Armenia

Kurdish State and Western Armenia


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The establishment of the Kurdish state is becoming real, whereas no official, even expert opinions are expressed by Armenia on the attitude of Yerevan to the Kurdish factor and activities to be taken ahead of the emergence of the fact. Even opponents of change of borders do not deny the emergence of a new neighbor. The Kurds of Iraq and Syria do not hide their intention to unite, while Ankara does everything not to allow the Turkish Kurds to join, while Ankara does everything to prevent their unification with the Turkish Kurds. The negotiations between Abdullah Ocalan and Erdogan focused on limiting the wishes of Turkish Kurds to sovereignty, not allowing them to speak about independence. The roadmap of the Turkish-Kurdish relations published in Turkish media indicates Turkey’s readiness to grant sovereignty to the Kurds or its likelihood to allow Ocalan and his supporters to go to the newly established Kurdish state. Erdogan is ready to topple Assad in Syria, invest millions of dollars in Iraqi Kurdistan not to allow independent Kurdistan to the Turkish territory, even lobby independent Kurdistan in Washington in February, however, not in Turkey but in the territory of Iraq and Syria. Does the United States agree with Turkey’s approach? Perhaps, not. It proceeds from the policy of Turkey’s containment and total control of the United States on the region. Most probably, Armenia is also involved in these plans. At least, there is danger that the territories of Western Armenia where Kurds or converted Armenians live will also be included in the Kurdish state. Nobody knows anything about global projects – is Turkey’s fragmentation, establishment of the Kurdish state and unification of two parts of Armenia under consideration? In any case, the plan is not a dogma and it can undergo change depending on the policy of interested states. What steps does Armenia take to set up relations with Kurds to prevent accession of the territories of Western Armenia by the possible Kurdish state? These steps are taken idly or are not taken at all. However, even in the absence of public statements by Yerevan, Ankara understands the threat and in the past week three assaults on Armenians were reported in Turkey. Turkey is warning Armenia. While Erdogan is moving towards reconciliation with Kurds, Armenians undergo a policy of threat and intimidation. Turkey instills fear among Armenians on new massacres to intimidate them. It is clear that all these tendencies, Kurdish and Armenian, have not been initiated in the region and are part of the global policy which is obviously trying to stop the Ottoman plan. However, both Kurds and Armenians must find out the handiness of the political conjuncture, what threats ensue and what prospects open up. However, all this is not a discourse in Armenia yet. It is not ruled out that the Kurdish issue will culminate 3 years later when the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide will be marked, and redesign of borders will take place in the context of the territorial compensation to Armenians. In this case, Turkey’s anger will be against the Armenians rather than Kurds and the West. Armenia needs clear safeguards that geopolitical changes will not affect it negatively. It is possible that under their light the possibility of requesting military assistance from the United States by Armenia is considered.

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